Measuring the crowd within

Two psychologists, Edward Vul of MIT and Harold Pashler of the University of California in San Diego, have tested the wisdom of crowds by simulating online “Who Wants To Be A Millionaire?”. The wisdom of crowds (best-seller by Surowiecki) is described as the fact that under certain circumstances a crowd’s solution to a question is at least as intelligent as one given by an expert. This recent study looked not only into this effect, but also into an individual’s guesses to a question. Interestingly, the collective effect also shows with multiple guesses given by one individual over time. The “crowd within” yields a statistically more accurate answer (+6%). It becomes even more accurate with a time span of three weeks in between two guesses (+16%). This is due to the fact that one’s mind becomes more independent - more impartial to the first guess.

People assume their first guess about a matter of fact comes closest to the solution. The study shows that “sleeping on it” is now a proven option to come to a better solution. However, the study also showed that the wisdom of the collective mind is still more accurate.

Sources:

E. Vul & H. Pashler. Psychological Science. “Measuring the Crowd Within: Probabilistic Representations Within Individuals”. Volume 19, Number 7, July 2008.

The Economist Print Edition. 26th of June 2008. Found on http://www.economist.com/science/displaystory.cfm?story_id=11614183

W. Herbert (2008). Found on http://www.psychologicalscience.org/onlyhuman/2008/06/polling-crowd-within.cfm